FOMC Research
Extracts and analyses complex financial / macroeconomic web data from limited input and produces a concise comparative summary report. Reference use case: analysing the output of an FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting — retrieving the statement, diffing it against the prior meeting, summarising the press conference, and reading the rate-move signal and implied probabilities. Generalises to any macro/financial topic (Fed/ECB/RBI rate decisions, policy statements, inflation vs guidance). ROUTE HERE when the task is to extract+analyse web data on a complex FINANCIAL/MACROECONOMIC topic, compare multi-source/statement inputs, or run a custom analysis function (statement comparison, rate-move read) and produce a summarised report — as opposed to general open-web research (Deep Research) or scholarly literature (Academic Research). Input: a meeting_date (ISO YYYY-MM-DD) for an FOMC meeting, OR a free-text query for any other macro/financial topic; optional depth and internal_context. HUMAN-IN-THE-LOOP: pauses with an analysis brief (deliverable_type fomc_analysis_brief) for human approval/edits before committing the final report; on approval, the analysis_anchor is passed back verbatim to carry the gathered data across the handoff (session continuity).
Example input
{
"meeting_date": "2026-01-28",
"depth": "standard"
}
Example output
{
"status": "ok",
"deliverable_type": "fomc_research_report",
"title": "FOMC — January 28, 2026 Meeting Analysis",
"summary": "At its January 27-28, 2026 meeting the FOMC held the federal funds target range at 4.25-4.50% for the second consecutive meeting. The statement upgraded its read on labour-market resilience and softened the inflation language from 'remains elevated' to 'has eased but stays above target'. Forward guidance kept the data-dependent framing and dropped the explicit reference to 'additional firming', signalling the tightening cycle is on hold. Markets read the tone as mildly dovish; fed-funds futures shifted the first expected cut toward the June meeting. Balance-sheet runoff continues at the existing pace. The vote was unanimous.",
"meeting_summary": "Rates held at 4.25-4.50%. The Committee characterised growth as 'solid' and judged risks to its dual mandate as 'moving into better balance'. Chair Powell's press conference stressed that the bar for cuts is accumulating evidence inflation is durably heading to 2%, and pushed back on near-term cut pricing.",
"statement_comparison": [
{ "topic": "Policy rate", "change": "Held at 4.25-4.50% (unchanged vs Dec)." },
{ "topic": "Inflation language", "change": "'Remains elevated' → 'has eased but stays above target'." },
{ "topic": "Forward guidance", "change": "Dropped 'additional policy firming'; retained data-dependence." },
{ "topic": "Labour market", "change": "Upgraded from 'has slowed' to 'remains resilient'." },
{ "topic": "Balance sheet", "change": "Runoff pace unchanged." }
],
"rate_move_read": {
"decision": "Hold at 4.25-4.50%",
"probabilities": "Futures imply ~90% hold delivered; first cut ~60% priced for June 2026.",
"rationale": "Softer inflation wording plus the dropped firming bias tilt the next move toward a cut, but not imminently."
},
"key_findings": [
"Second straight hold leaves the target range at 4.25-4.50% since the December 2025 meeting.",
"Removing 'additional firming' is the clearest signal the hiking cycle has ended.",
"Inflation language softened but the Committee still flags it as above the 2% objective.",
"Fed-funds futures moved the first-cut expectation earlier, toward June 2026, on the dovish tone.",
"The decision was unanimous, with no dissents recorded in the statement."
],
"sources": [
{ "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260128a.htm", "title": "FOMC statement, January 28, 2026", "relevance": "Primary statement text." },
{ "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20251217a.htm", "title": "FOMC statement, December 17, 2025", "relevance": "Prior statement for comparison." },
{ "url": "https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html", "title": "CME FedWatch Tool", "relevance": "Market-implied rate probabilities." }
],
"confidence": "medium",
"notes": "Statement language and target range reflect the official release; full meeting minutes publish three weeks later and may refine the rationale. Futures-implied probabilities are as of the meeting close and move intraday."
}